The impact of crude oil price fluctuations on Economic Growth and Non-oil exports in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: An ARDL approach

Abstract

Using annual data covering the period from 2000 to 2020 the effect of volatility was estimated on economic growth and crude oil prices on Saudi non-oil exports, each of the two sectors was chosen, Exports from manufacturing industries, agricultural exports, and high-tech exports to represent Non-oil export, also we Measuring the impact of oil price fluctuations on economic growth in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The study followed the application of the ARDL model to study the equilibrium relationship between all of the volatility in oil prices, the three export sectors. The results indicated that the sector Exports of manufacturing industries is the sector most affected by the fluctuation in the price of oil, while the results did not indicate the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship through which the sectors of agricultural exports and high-tech products are affected by the change in oil prices.The study recommends the need to increase investments for these twoSectors to secure a stable export proceeds that guarantee the stability of the Kingdom's economic growth rates.To reach the above, we have relied on measuring the impact of the relationship between oil prices and economic growth of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia during the period 2000-2020, based on a model the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL).