There Was No IS-LM Enigma: Both Keynes’s IS-LM(LP) and D-Z Models of Chapters 20 and 21 Together Make Up Keynes’s General Theory

M. E. Brady
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Abstract

All of J .M .Keynes’s earlier 1933-1935 versions of his IS-LM(LP) model contained a serious inconsistency. These earlier models all incorporated both actual and expected outcomes in the same model. The units did not match up. Keynes solved this problem by himself by splitting off the D-Z model from the IS-LM(LP) model. The D-Z model incorporated an analysis of expected results, expectations, uncertainty, and confidence.The major result that Keynes made use of in his analysis of the D-Z model was the Aggregate Supply Curve, which is a locus of all possible, expected D=Z outcomes. Only one of these expected outcomes could actually occur. The one outcome that actually occurred was called Y. Keynes then combined the actual Aggregate Income or Demand, Y, with r, the nominal long run rate of interest, to form the IS-LM(LP) model.

The misbelief that IS-LM(LP) had to incorporate expectations in order to actually represent what Keynes meant was a catastrophic error made by the Pseudo Keynesians-Joan Robinson, Austin Robinson, Richard Kahn, and Roy Harrod, as well as by the economics profession at large. Unfortunately, no other economist, except Hugh Townshend, had grasped the necessary connections that had to exist between the two models.
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没有IS-LM谜:凯恩斯的IS-LM(LP)模型和第20章和第21章的D-Z模型共同构成了凯恩斯的通论
凯恩斯早在1933-1935年提出的IS-LM(LP)模型都存在严重的不一致性。这些早期的模型都在同一个模型中包含了实际和预期的结果。单位不匹配。凯恩斯通过将D-Z模型从IS-LM(LP)模型中分离出来,自己解决了这个问题。D-Z模型结合了对预期结果、期望、不确定性和信心的分析。凯恩斯在分析D-Z模型时使用的主要结果是总供给曲线,它是所有可能的、预期的D=Z结果的轨迹。这些预期结果中只有一种可能实际发生。实际发生的一个结果被称为Y。凯恩斯然后将实际总收入或需求Y与名义长期利率r结合起来,形成IS-LM(LP)模型。错误地认为IS-LM(LP)必须纳入预期才能真正代表凯恩斯的意思,这是伪凯恩斯主义者——琼·罗宾逊、奥斯汀·罗宾逊、理查德·卡恩和罗伊·哈罗德——以及整个经济学专业人士犯下的灾难性错误。不幸的是,除了休·汤森德(Hugh Townshend)之外,没有其他经济学家抓住了这两种模式之间必然存在的必要联系。
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