A Model of the Decision-Making Process for Managing the Production of Asphalt Concrete

Abstract

The article shows that in real conditions it is impossible to operate with accurate data due to the random nature of the order arrival, random failure times of equipment, the probabilistic nature of the release of defects, which leads to the need to make decisions in uncertainty conditions. When considering the entire decision-making process under conditions of uncertainty of information, a model of decision-making process in the production of asphalt concrete mixtures is proposed. The universal scheme of the decision-making process in a fuzzy statement and the criterion of optimality of a fuzzy decision are given. It is shown that the uncertainty of quantitative characteristics of obtained admissible variants of solutions is composed of probabilistic uncertainty and possible uncertainty, for the estimation of which entropy is used. The process of automated decision-making is formalized and an original algorithm that allows evaluating the totality of options. The use of enumerative methods in finding the optimal decision, considering the preferences of the decision maker is justified.