Exchange Rate Flexibility in China: Measurement, Regime Shifts and Driving Forces of Change

Abstract

With an emphasis on government intervention that hinders market forces in currency movements, this paper presents a nuanced investigation of the degree and dynamics of flexibility in China's exchange rate regime. A high-frequency data model is developed to more accurately detect the extent to which the Chinese currency is market-driven. This indicator is then utilized in a Markov switching model to examine shifts in RMB regime flexibility. The results suggest a moderate increase in exchange rate flexibility since the 2005 reform. Additionally, two switching states are captured, and possible driving factors are discussed.