Quantifying risk for determining optimal joint fires in defence planning

Abstract

As the first step for a NATO System Analysis Study task on Methods to Support Decision Making in Joint Fires, this paper identifies the critical element of this task and develops a method for quantifying the risk of Collateral Damage. As a supplement to the current NATO Collateral Damage Estimation, this quantification methodology recognizes that the risk of Collateral Damage may vary with usage of different weapon and ammunition combinations even though the target is the same. Therefore, the weapon and ammunition characteristic properties were considered for this Collateral Damage quantification. This risk quantification methodology will help inform decision making on selecting optimal Joint Fires in Defence Planning.