Minimal inference from incomplete 2 × 2-tables

Abstract

Estimates based on 2x2 tables of frequencies are widely used in statistical applications. However, in many cases these tables are incomplete in the sense that the data required to compute the frequencies for a subset of the cells defining the table are unavailable. Minimal inference addresses those situations where this incompleteness leads to target parameters for these tables that are interval, rather than point, identifiable. In particular, we develop the concept of corroboration as a measure of the statistical evidence in the observed data that is not based on likelihoods. The corroboration function identifies the parameter values that are the hardest to refute, i.e., those values which, under repeated sampling, remain interval identified. This enables us to develop a general approach to inference from incomplete 2x2 tables when the additional assumptions required to support a likelihood-based approach cannot be sustained based on the data available. This minimal inference approach then provides a foundation for further analysis that aims at making sharper inference supported by plausible external beliefs.