On Modelling Credit Risk Using Arbitrage Free Models

Frank S. Skinner, A. Díaz
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引用次数: 7

Abstract

By examining the distribution of state prices obtained from binomial versions of Jarrow and Turnbull (1995), Lando (1998) and Duffie and Singleton (1999), we are able to suggest which credit risk parameters are of critical interest. We find that it appears worthwhile to parameterize credit risk since even the simplest parameterized model obtains large changes in the distribution of state prices when compared to a non-parameterized model. Similarly we find large differences in the distribution of state prices as we add correlation and moderate changes as we add time varying recovery rates. Finally, the choice between the RM or RF recovery assumption appears innocuous, but the choice between RT and these two recovery assumptions is not.
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基于无套利模型的信用风险建模
通过检查从jararrow和Turnbull(1995)、Lando(1998)和Duffie和Singleton(1999)的二项版本中获得的国家价格分布,我们能够提出哪些信用风险参数是至关重要的。我们发现,参数化信用风险似乎是值得的,因为即使是最简单的参数化模型,与非参数化模型相比,状态价格分布的变化也很大。同样地,我们发现各州价格的分布随着相关性的增加而有很大的差异,随着随时间变化的回收率的增加而有适度的变化。最后,在RM或RF恢复假设之间的选择似乎是无害的,但在RT和这两个恢复假设之间的选择却不是。
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