Risk Prediction and Reduction in Passenger Transport Service Delivery

Abstract

Risk is a phenomenon that has become part of human activities. Risk is in everything and is defined according to the circumstance of the activity or event under contention. Transportation business in Nigeria is a highly risky one especially as it affects passenger transport services. The abundance of bad roads and reckless driving habits coupled with poor highway and vehicle maintenance culture tends to multiply the risk for both operators and their human cargoes. The need to effectively determine operational risk with a view to finding ways of reducing same gave rise to the research and presentation of this paper. In the course of study, records were obtained and analyzed from the offices of the Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC) and a prominent luxury bus transport company at Onitsha. The analysis gave informed insight into the causes of road accidents and their risk factors from which a modest risk prediction model was formulated whilst offering useful suggestions on risk reduction strategies. The study also revealed that passenger transportation business operational risk is of two folds - accidental and financial risk and it is the combination of these two that determines the overall systematic risk of the business.