LOGISTIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT FOR PREDICTION OF COVID-19 INFECTED INDIVIDUALS: CASE STUDY IN CENTRAL JAVA PROVINCE, INDONESIA

Abstract

In early 2020, covid-19 spread fast in the worldwide and cause the high death. The disease started from the Asian region which resulted in a viral pandemic in 2020. In order to anticipate the increasing of the cases, a strategy is needed to inhibit its transmission.  The mathematical model approach is important tool for predicting of covid-19 spread in populations. In this paper we propose and analyze the dynamical behaviour of a developed logistic model by considering the effect of the contact patterns in reducing the covid-19 spread process.  To verify the developed logistic model, numerical simulation was given with case study of covid-19 spread for patients under supervision in Central Java Province, Indonesia.  Based on simulation results, it was found that physical distancing can reduce the growth of the covid-19 spread for patient under supervision. It can be seen from the number of covid-19 spread for patients under supervision with physical distancing intervention smaller compared to without physical distancing intervention.