Die Suid-Afrikaanse Kapitaalmark en Aandelebeurs as Vooruitskatters van Reële Ekonomiese Aktiwiteit

M. J. V. D. Mescht, E. Smit
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Abstract

ABSTRACTTwo simple forecasting models are developed to forecast future real economic activity, the one based on information contained in the industrial share index and the other based on the term structure of interest rates. It is shown that both these models provide better ex ante forecasts of real activity than a number of leading South African economic forecasters.
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摘要本文提出了两种简单的预测模型来预测未来实体经济活动,一种是基于产业份额指数中包含的信息,另一种是基于利率期限结构。结果表明,这两种模型对实际经济活动的事前预测都优于南非一些主要的经济预测机构。
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