Assessment of Drought Exposure to All-Cause Mortality in the Northern Rockies and Plains of the United States

Abstract

Climate change is increasing the frequency, severity, and length of extreme events such as drought, heatwave, and wildfire. Drought is one of the more complex climate phenomena that changes regionally and temporally around the world and is likely to have a detrimental influence on human health. However, there is still a lack of research on the assessment of health risks associated with drought, particularly in the United States. The purpose of this study is to assess the risk ratio of monthly drought exposure to all-cause mortality in the Northern Rockies and Plains of the United States from 2000 to 2018. We applied two-stage time-series modeling approach to estimate the location-specific and overall risk ratio (RR) of all-cause mortality associated with the United States Drought Monitor (USDM) drought. In a general population, the all-cause mortality was positively associated with the severe drought (RR: 1.050, 95% Cr: 1.034 to 1.068). Our findings suggested that the elderly, both male and female were the most affected subgroups along with both metropolitan (urban) and non-metropolitan (rural) counties. These findings highlight the need for policymakers and communities to adopt more effective drought mitigation strategies in this region.