{"title":"Market Dynamics: On Directional Information Derived from (Time, Execution Price, Shares Traded) Transaction Sequences","authors":"V. Malyshkin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3361478","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"A new approach to obtaining market--directional information, based on a non-stationary solution to the dynamic equation \"future price tends to the value that maximizes the number of shares traded per unit time\" [1] is presented. In our previous work[2], we established that it is the share execution flow ($I=dV/dt$) and not the share trading volume ($V$) that is the driving force of the market, and that asset prices are much more sensitive to the execution flow $I$ (the dynamic impact) than to the traded volume $V$ (the regular impact). In this paper, an important advancement is achieved: we define the \"scalp-price\" ${\\cal P}$ as the sum of only those price moves that are relevant to market dynamics; the criterion of relevance is a high $I$. Thus, only \"follow the market\" (and not \"little bounce\") events are included in ${\\cal P}$. Changes in the scalp-price defined this way indicate a market trend change - not a bear market rally or a bull market sell-off; the approach can be further extended to non-local price change. The software calculating the scalp--price given market observations triples (time, execution price, shares traded) is available from the authors.","PeriodicalId":129812,"journal":{"name":"Financial Engineering eJournal","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2018-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"6","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Financial Engineering eJournal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3361478","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Abstract
A new approach to obtaining market--directional information, based on a non-stationary solution to the dynamic equation "future price tends to the value that maximizes the number of shares traded per unit time" [1] is presented. In our previous work[2], we established that it is the share execution flow ($I=dV/dt$) and not the share trading volume ($V$) that is the driving force of the market, and that asset prices are much more sensitive to the execution flow $I$ (the dynamic impact) than to the traded volume $V$ (the regular impact). In this paper, an important advancement is achieved: we define the "scalp-price" ${\cal P}$ as the sum of only those price moves that are relevant to market dynamics; the criterion of relevance is a high $I$. Thus, only "follow the market" (and not "little bounce") events are included in ${\cal P}$. Changes in the scalp-price defined this way indicate a market trend change - not a bear market rally or a bull market sell-off; the approach can be further extended to non-local price change. The software calculating the scalp--price given market observations triples (time, execution price, shares traded) is available from the authors.