Arab Public Opinion and the Gulf War

Abstract

While it is generally assumed that public opinion matters little in authoritarian polities, I argue in this article that on issues of foreign policy, Arab public opinion has a discernible impact on the foreign policies of Arab states; moreover, in the conduct of the Persian Gulf War, Arab public opinion was a key element in the strategies of the central parties. I also argue that the absence of the predicted upheavals in the Middle East following the smashing of Iraq was partly due to the success of members of the alliance in controlling some of the variables that help shape Arab public opinion, partly to the failure of Saddam Hussein to deliver what he promised, and partly to the fact that the allies took seriously the predictions of the public upheaval.