Post-Covid Tourism, A Consensual Re-Reading of the Economic Outlook Application of the Delphi Method to "Morocco" Destination

Abstract

The unprecedented health crisis of COVID-19 has deeply affected the tourism industry around the world. As a direct consequence, more than three billion potential tourists have been confined (Donthu & Gustafsson, 2020) and the other actors (hosting companies, restaurateurs, transporters, etc.) are looking to understand the future of this tourist demand and its effects on their tourist destination. They are currently searching for answers to situate themselves between the multitude of potential possibilities and the uncertain and changing perspectives. Indeed, between adaptation and resilience, it is evident that there is a latent demand for tourism stays, ready to manifest after these long periods of confinement. However, the behavior of this tourist demand remains complex and highly dependent on the health conditions imposed by the pandemic, on the freedom of travel and on the perception of health risks by the key actors of tourist destinations. In this context, a literature review allows to define three key scenarios for tomorrow's tourism, namely the growth of local tourism or 'domestic tourism' (Blanc, 2020; Donthu & Gustafsson, 2020; Zenker & Kock, 2020), the emergence of a 'Stop and Go' tourism that can adapt continuously to pandemic situation evolution (Jiricka-Purrer et al., 2020; Ugur & Akbiyi, 2020). Finally, the development of tourism internalizing the health risk. Therefore, the definition of a Moroccan tourism scenario needs a depth review of the current situation and a re-reading of the "wait and see" outlook for the onset of the health crisis. Since the pandemic appears, behaviors of the tourism stakeholders is already evolving in the short and medium run. Consequently, the re-reading of outlook must be a consensual process entrusted to tourism experts. To this end, we have suggested the use of the Delphi process. This technique aims to ensure a convergence of opinions on forward-looking issues, such as demand for sustainable tourism (Choi & Sirakaya, 2006) and predictions on tourist destination attractiveness (Lee & Hsieh, 2016; Miller, 2001; Torres-Delgado & Palomeque, 2014). Thus, the Delphi survey takes place in a variety of rounds, taking into account the opinions convergence of confirmed tourism expert’s panel, namely provincial tourism delegates, members of tourism associations, specialists in sustainable tourism, researchers in tourism, etc. Thus, Delphi survey results will make possible to prevail a post-COVID tourism scenario and to forecast the key actors’ reactions, facing the evolution of this global pandemic.