How Managers Use the Stockdale Paradox to Balance "the Now and the Next".

C. Bergen, M. Bressler
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Abstract

Recent discussions of leadership paradoxes have suggested that managers who can hold seemingly opposed, yet interrelated perspectives, are more adaptive and effective. One such paradox that has received relatively little attention is the “Stockdale Paradox,” named after Admiral James Stockdale, an American naval officer who was held captive for seven and one-half years during the Vietnam War and survived imprisonment in large part because he held beliefs of optimism about the future, while simultaneously acknowledging the current reality of the desperate situation in which he found himself. This contradictory tension enabled him and his followers to emerge from their situation not just unbroken, but stronger. Such paradoxical thinking has been empirically supported by mental contrasting research demonstrating the effectiveness of visualizing a positive future yet recognizing the reality of the current situation. This apparent dichotomy provides an important lesson for leaders who must remain optimistic, yet face the reality of their present condition, and is symbolic of an overarching, general tension leaders face in addressing “the now and the next.”
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管理者如何利用斯托克代尔悖论来平衡“现在和未来”。
最近关于领导力悖论的讨论表明,那些能够持有看似对立但却相互关联的观点的管理者,更能适应环境,效率也更高。其中一个相对较少受到关注的悖论是“斯托克代尔悖论”(Stockdale paradox),它是以美国海军上将詹姆斯·斯托克代尔(James Stockdale)的名字命名的。斯托克代尔是一名美国海军军官,在越南战争期间被囚禁了七年半,之所以能在监禁中幸存下来,很大程度上是因为他对未来抱有乐观的信念,同时也承认自己目前所处的绝望现实。这种矛盾的张力使他和他的追随者不仅不受破坏,而且更强大。这种矛盾的想法得到了心理对比研究的实证支持,这些研究表明,想象一个积极的未来,同时认识到当前情况的现实是有效的。这种明显的两分法给那些必须保持乐观的领导人上了重要的一课,但同时又要面对现实,这也象征着领导人在处理“现在和未来”时面临的一种全面的、普遍的紧张关系。
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