Indonesia’s Strategy In Dealing With The Threat of A Global Recession on Foreign Exchange Reserves In Term of Macro Economic Activity

Muchammad Arif Deddy Yuanda, Yudi Sutrasna, D. Navalino
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said that Indonesia is a bright spot amidst the gloomy world economy. Previously, Indonesia had experienced considerable economic shocks, namely the Asian financial crisis which began in mid-1997 and peaked in 1998, as well as the global economic crisis in 2008 and 2009. Meanwhile, Indonesia is currently at an inflation rate of 5.59% (mom) based on data obtained from BI in the third quarter of 2022 recorded at 130,782 billion USD with an exchange rate of rupiah against the dollar of IDR 15,650. compared to foreign exchange reserves in 2021 of 144.9 billion USD with an exchange rate of rupiah against the dollar of IDR 14,350 with an inflation rate of 1.87% (YoY). To support the increase in foreign exchange reserves from the macroeconomic side is sourced from large export capabilities, in addition to manufacturing investment, and also on foreign exchange circulation through foreign tourists who come to Indonesia by enriching the tourist sector is able to add to the amount of foreign exchange reserves of the Indonesian state in line with research conducted by rizieq (2006). through manufacturing investment and also the presence of foreign tourists who come are able to create jobs indirectly absorb existing unemployment. so that the wave of recession can still be controlled and foreign exchange reserves increase. it is hoped that the research conducted will be able to provide input to the government in making a policy in facing the wave of recession in Indonesia.
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从宏观经济活动的角度看,印尼应对全球经济衰退对外汇储备威胁的策略
国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃表示,在低迷的世界经济中,印尼是一个亮点。此前,印度尼西亚经历了相当大的经济冲击,即1997年中期开始并在1998年达到顶峰的亚洲金融危机,以及2008年和2009年的全球经济危机。与此同时,根据BI在2022年第三季度获得的数据,印度尼西亚目前的通货膨胀率为5.59% (mom),记录为130,782亿美元,卢比兑美元汇率为15,650印尼盾。而2021年的外汇储备为1449亿美元,卢比兑美元汇率为14350印尼盾,通货膨胀率为1.87%(同比)。支持外汇储备增加的宏观经济方面的来源是庞大的出口能力,除了制造业投资,还有外汇流通,通过外国游客来到印度尼西亚,丰富旅游部门能够增加印尼国家外汇储备的数量,rizieq(2006)进行的研究一致。通过制造业投资和外国游客的到来,能够间接地创造就业机会,吸收现有的失业。这样,经济衰退的浪潮仍能得到控制,外汇储备也会增加。希望所进行的研究能够为印尼政府制定应对经济衰退浪潮的政策提供参考。
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