A perceptive and persistent pioneer

T. Kippenberger
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Abstract

Discusses Pierre Wack, the Frenchman credited, along with Ted Newland, as the developer of scenario planning at Royal Dutch/Shell, that then developed and used scenarios to good effect. Looks in depth at some of Wack's scenario concepts showing how many organizations have used scenarios with very different degrees of success. Concludes that many who have tried using scenarios express disappointment at their inability to achieve this goal.
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敏锐而执着的先锋
讨论了法国人皮埃尔·瓦克(Pierre Wack)和泰德·纽兰(Ted Newland)被认为是荷兰皇家壳牌公司情景规划的开发者,他们随后开发并使用了情景,取得了良好的效果。深入研究Wack的一些场景概念,展示有多少组织使用了不同程度的成功场景。结论是,许多尝试使用场景的人对无法实现这一目标表示失望。
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