Aandeleopbrengste en Reële Ekonomiese Aktiwiteit—Die Suid-Afrikaanse Ondervinding

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis article investigates the relationships between real economic activity and share returns. A turning point analysis shows that returns consistently lead the business cycle, although with leads that substantially vary between turning points. Upswings appear to be easier to forecast than downswings, using share value indices. Causality tests show very little evidence of causality between returns and production growth. Also on the level of seasonal patterns in production growth and share returns, there is little evidence that the stock exchange leads real activity.