Scenario Analysis of Development of Complex Logistics Systems

Abstract

The current state and problems of development of complex logistics systems are considered. The main elements of the global logistics system that form cargo flows are highlighted. Promising models and methods have been proposed that allow for a through scenario analysis of the flows of international logistical transformations, in order to attract additional volumes of cargo to international transport corridors, including the East-West corridor, taking into account not only the throughput and processing capabilities of infrastructure and the presence of rolling stock, but also taking into account border, customs, sanitary, phytosanitary and other restrictions on functioning. Scenarios for the development of international logistics in the implementation of threats of various types are considered.