Statistical analysis and forecasting of potato yield dynamics in the Republic of Uzbekistan

Abstract

Observations on some phenomenon, the nature of which changes over time, generates an ordered sequence, which is called a time series. The article, using the method of statistical analysis of time series, studied the statistical regularity of the series of dynamics $\left(\bar{y}_t\right)$-average potato yield in the Republic of Uzbekistan (based on the materials of the CSO of the Republic of Uzbekistan for 1991-2018). Point and interval estimates for the average potato yield in the Republic were constructed with a 95 procent guarantee, explicit types of trends have also been determined as well as the yield in the Republic was predicted for subsequent years. Using the Durbin-Watson statistical criteria, it was determined that the average potato yield in the region has an autocorrelation dependence, i.e. Confirmed that the yield of potatoes in the Republic this year depends on the yield of past years.