IMF programs and policies assessment in the transition economies during the transition and the post-transition period

Sotirios K. Bellos
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Abstract

Abstract We analyze empirically whether IMF financial assistance in 31 transition countries, during the transition and the post-transition period, has achieved the purposes stated in the IMF's own articles of agreement, namely employment enhancement, confidence provision and export promotion. By employing panel data and impact evaluation analysis, we find that IMF presence persistently fails to be correlated with upgrades in sovereign rating, FDI attraction and employment improvement. By focusing on specific IMF policies, we present some intriguing results, which reveal whether these individual policies actually contribute to the achievement of the official IMF purposes or not.
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国际货币基金组织在转型期间和转型后时期对转型经济体的计划和政策进行评估
摘要本文实证分析了IMF对31个转轨国家在转轨和转轨后的金融援助是否达到了IMF自身协议条款所规定的目的,即促进就业、提供信心和促进出口。通过面板数据和影响评价分析,我们发现IMF存在与主权评级提升、吸引FDI和改善就业持续不相关。通过关注IMF的具体政策,我们提出了一些有趣的结果,这些结果揭示了这些个别政策是否真的有助于实现IMF的官方目标。
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