Probabilistic short-term transmission-loss forecasting based on a two-point estimate method

Matej Rejc, M. Pantoš
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引用次数: 8

Abstract

In a competitive electricity market, system operators are required to procure certain ancillary services, which may among others include compensation of active-power losses. The compensation is most often done as a yearly, monthly and daily purchase of energy. The yearly and monthly bulk purchases do not take daily variations into account and daily purchases are required to cover the discrepancies between them. This requires an accurate and fast short-term forecasting method that has to be efficiently applicable in day-ahead markets. This paper presents a novel probabilistic short-term transmission-loss forecast method. Specifically, the method includes deterministic short-term load, generation and power transit forecasts as well as network configuration forecasts, which can be used for deterministic power-flow calculations to forecast transmission losses. However, the uncertainty of system loading conditions and inherent nonlinearities in power systems may cause inaccurate transmission-loss forecasts. By using deterministic forecasts, no additional information as to the possible forecast deviations can be given, as transmission losses do not show a clear correlation with these uncertainties. To account for the uncertainties, probabilistic power flow approach is proposed to define the probability distribution of the forecasted losses, which may help system operators to decide on the most efficient strategy on the day-ahead market. Hong's point-estimate method is used to solve the probabilistic power flow problem. The proposed approach has been verified by using real data for the ENTSO-E interconnection and tested for the Slovenian power system. The forecasting results demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed approach.
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基于两点估计法的短期输电损耗概率预测
在竞争激烈的电力市场中,系统运营商必须获得某些辅助服务,其中可能包括补偿有功功率损失。补偿通常以每年、每月和每天购买能源的方式进行。每年和每月的大宗采购没有考虑到每天的变化,需要每天的采购来弥补两者之间的差异。这需要一种准确而快速的短期预测方法,这种方法必须有效地适用于前一天的市场。提出了一种新的短期输电损耗概率预测方法。具体而言,该方法包括确定性短期负荷、发电和输变电预测以及网态预测,可用于确定性潮流计算,预测输变电损耗。然而,系统负荷条件的不确定性和电力系统固有的非线性特性可能导致输电损耗预测不准确。通过使用确定性预测,不能给出关于可能的预测偏差的额外信息,因为传输损失与这些不确定性没有明确的相关性。为了考虑不确定性,提出了概率潮流方法来定义预测损失的概率分布,这有助于系统运营商在日前市场上决定最有效的策略。采用Hong的点估计方法求解概率潮流问题。所提出的方法已通过ENTSO-E互联的实际数据验证,并在斯洛文尼亚电力系统中进行了测试。预测结果表明了该方法的有效性。
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