Assessment of changes in the long-term ice regime of the Zhaiyk river basin

Abstract

This study examines the change in the timing of the appearance of ice phenomena in the basin of the Zhaiyk river associated with anthropogenic activity and climate change. To assess the long-term ice regime (dynamics of ice phenomena) and meteorological parameters, two periods were identified: before 1973 and 1974-2019 due to intense climate warming after the 1970s. A comparative analysis of the ice phenomena of the Zhaiyk river basin with meteorological indicators (air temperature) showed that the trend of precipitation tends to decrease slightly and there is a pronounced tendency to increase air temperature, in connection with this, the duration and date of the appearance of ice formations decreased for a later time. Estimates of changes in the considered characteristics of the ice regime of the Zhaiyk River basin for the period 1974-2019 are given. compared with the period of the conditionally stationary climatic situation (from the beginning of observations to 1973) using statistical methods.