Forecasting the mobility parameters of the inhabitants of suburban areas

Abstract

Potential mobility that meets the requirements of population displacement is determined following the biological and social needs, socio-economic characteristics, production necessity, and cultural needs. Because of the multifactor character and complexity of relationships, it is impossible to determine the potential mobility by a calculation method. The feasibility of different target movements, depending on their distance, is regarded by rural populations differently. Each rural settlement is located among many other rural and urban settlements with an individual quantitative and qualitative set of social, cultural, and industrial potential. With the developed road network and public transport system, the population selects the center of gravity with the limitations imposed by this transport system and is based on subjective considerations about the quality of service. The distribution of urban residents’ movements to the rural areas is affected by the size of the city, movement distance, movement purpose, i.e. the same factors as rural residents’ movement to cities. The difference is that the radius of urban residents’ movements distribution is much smaller. Thus, the zone of intensive and regular movements in the working day cycle covers only nearest to cities rural area with a radius of 15 km. On weekends, due to guest visits and holiday trips, the radius of this zone extends approximately 1,5-2 times. Based on the links distribution, the scatter band of the initial and final points of movement can be obtained. Since the density of scattering varies with respect to settlements, then we can allocate the territorial units that will make service zone on their sets. Research results can be an integral part of comprehensive studies of determining the transport links density, hubs of passenger flows’ origin, and suppression to construct mathematical models of the most efficient passenger transport system operation.