Kuzbass: structural factors of regional dynamics

Abstract

The article on the basis of the method of structural shifts analyzed the dynamics and structural transformations of employment and production of gross value added (GVA) in the Kemerovo region - Kuzbass. The authors attempted a quantitative analysis of the contribution of structural factors to economic dynamics, as well as an assessment of trends in diversification of region production. The basis for the calculations was compiled by state statistics for 2007-2018. It was shown that during this period regional employment dynamics were determined mainly by regional factors, whose contribution to the growth of this indicator turned out to be negative. In turn, the dynamics of GVA production was due to a complex of national trends and regional factors, whose influence was multi-directional (the positive effect of macroeconomic conditions and the negative contribution of the regional component). The contribution of structural shifts to the growth of the GVA was negative and insignificant, and the reduction in the number of employees in Kuzbass took place with an almost unchanged structure. To date, in the Kemerovo region, using a diversification mechanism, it has not been possible to create an economy structure resistant to internal and external shocks: coal mining remains the fundamental basis of the region's economy. All this gives reason to state that the structure of the economy that was formed in Soviet times, and the features "inherited" by it since then, continue to determine the dynamics of the development of Kuzbass and serve as a strategic challenge for the region.