Generation Method of Probabilistic Annual Output Scenario of New Energy Based on Electricity Characteristic Matching

Abstract

The annual power generation scenario sequence of new energy is the basis of system operation simulation. A new energy probabilistic annual output scenario generation method based on electricity characteristic matching is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the power balance characteristics of historical new energy scenarios are described based on the characteristic index, and then the probabilistic annual generation utilization hour scenario is constructed based on k-means clustering algorithm. Finally, the multi-time-scale electricity distribution curve is matched based on the feature index extraction, and the probabilistic new energy annual output scenarios under different power generation levels are generated. The example is tested based on the historical new energy data of a provincial power grid in China, and the generated new energy sequence scenario is used to calculate the power balance capacity of the system. the results verify the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method.