Vanguard Effect of Foreign Aid in Thailand

Hiroaki Sakurai
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Abstract

Abstract This study examines the relationship between foreign aid and investment in Thailand in two ways to see whether foreign aid contributes to Thai economy through encouraging investment in Thailand. The estimation results are summarized as follows. First, the relationship between foreign aid and investment adding to trade, savings, and growth from 1975 to 2020 is shown as positive relationships by using OLS but not by using VAR model. Second, positive relationship between the accumulated foreign aid and foreign direct investment from 1970 to 2020 is shown by using the VAR model, the Granger causality test, and the Impulse response test. Based on the estimation results, we infer that in Thailand foreign aid mainly arranged for social infrastructure since the 1980s guided investments to an extent since foreign aid and investment in Thailand has positive relationship under some restrictions. JEL classification numbers: F35, O53. Keywords: Foreign Aid, Vanguard, Foreign Direct Investment, Thailand.
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外援在泰国的先锋效应
摘要本研究从两方面考察外援与泰国投资之间的关系,以考察外援是否通过鼓励投资对泰国经济做出贡献。估计结果总结如下:首先,1975 - 2020年,外援与投资增加贸易、储蓄和增长之间的关系通过OLS显示为正相关关系,而通过VAR模型显示为非正相关关系。其次,运用VAR模型、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应检验,分析了1970 - 2020年累计对外援助与对外直接投资之间的正相关关系。根据估计结果,我们推断,泰国自20世纪80年代以来的外援主要安排在社会基础设施方面,在一定程度上引导了投资,因为泰国的外援与投资在一定的限制下是正相关的。JEL分类号:F35、O53。关键词:外援,先锋,外商直接投资,泰国。
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