The Mediterranean’s Future in an Age of Uncertainty

Abstract

As tempting as it is to forecast the Mediterranean’s future through the bleak lens of its present, it is unwise to do so. Over and again throughout history, writing the future through the linear extrapolation of contemporary trends has proven foolish. This essay identifies the most critical socioeconomic, political, ecological, and geopolitical drivers of change that together will shape the Mediterranean’s future. It analyzes the possible impacts of three major trends (demographic imbalance, ongoing empowerment, and rising natural resource stresses) and three critical uncertainties (the future of collective identity, the role of distant global powers, and economic turbulence).