Information Content of Rating Banks Using Early Warnings Indicators

Shoeib Abbasi, A. Nazemi, N. Namazi
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Abstract

It is necessary for decision-makers to have a rating system in the banking industry in order to reflect the banks' status and performance. Although most institutions across the countries have rating banks and financial institutions, there is a lack of a comprehensive rating system across Iranian banks. Rating requires identifying the appropriate criteria according to the environmental and macroeconomic conditions. For this purpose, 35 components are determined through the opinion of 34 banking and academic experts using the Delphi method and rating is done by the TOPSIS method for 15 banks listed on the Tehran stock exchange over the period of 5 years from 2015 to 2019. The results show that in addition to the quantitative aspects, the qualitative aspects and aspects related to environmental and macro aspects are effective in the native model of banks ratings. Also, there is a positive and significant relationship between banks stock prices variation and the suggested ratings. 65 Information Content of Rating Banks Using Early Warnings... The obtained results showed that there is a positive and significant correlation between the comprehensive model and early warning system so that the bank's position can be relatively described in the early warning system by identifying it within the model. This evidence addresses the need for a comprehensive consideration of proposed indicators to evaluate and rate banks.
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利用预警指标对银行进行评级的信息内容
为了反映银行的地位和绩效,决策者有必要在银行业建立一个评级体系。尽管各国的大多数机构都有评级银行和金融机构,但伊朗的银行缺乏全面的评级体系。评级需要根据环境和宏观经济条件确定适当的标准。为此,通过34位银行和学术专家的意见,使用德尔菲法确定了35个组成部分,并通过TOPSIS方法对2015年至2019年5年间在德黑兰证券交易所上市的15家银行进行了评级。结果表明,除了定量方面外,定性方面以及与环境和宏观方面相关的方面在银行评级的原生模型中是有效的。此外,银行股价变动与建议评级之间存在显著的正相关关系。65利用预警对银行进行评级的信息内容所得结果表明,综合模型与预警系统之间存在显著的正相关关系,通过在模型内识别银行,可以相对地描述银行在预警系统中的位置。这一证据表明,需要全面考虑评估和评级银行的拟议指标。
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