Assessing the Environmental Consequences of ICEVs and BEVs in Dhaka City via Vehicle Fleet Modeling and Support Vector Regression

Abstract

The majority of Dhaka’s transportation system consists of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) that use gasoline and compressed natural gas (CNG). Incorporation of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) can help to lessen air pollution caused by the automobiles’ exhaust systems. The impact of ICEVs on Dhaka’s air pollution, particularly based on the average speed and types of fuels used, have not yet been thoroughly studied. In this work, the emissions produced by the fleet of ICEVs already on the road and the emission decrease that would occur if electric vehicles were gradually brought to the city of Dhaka are predicted. It has been determined that the adoption of EVs will greatly lower emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and particulate matter (PM). According to our analysis, the CO2, NOx, and PM2.5 emissions can be lowered by 4.76%, 7.93%, and 8.96% respectively by 2050 using the existing primary energy sources for generating electricity, however the SO2 emissions will rise by 27S.34%. In the case of a primary energy mix with reduced emission factors, it has been observed that S.95%, 9.5S%, and 9.12% reductions in CO2, NOx, and PM2.5 emissions, respectively, can be derived from the same number of EV integration by 2050, whereas SO2 emission will increase by 57.47%.