Morbidity Analysis on Grey Forecast Model

Abstract

This paper studies on the morbidity problem for the GM(1,1) model with the accumulating method based on the condition number theory. It proves that we can get a new healthier model by making a multiple transformation on the initial data, and the transformation does not affects the precision of the model. Therefore, the morbidity problem for the GM(1,1) model has been resolved very well with the accumulating method. Furthermore, we give an example to prove that the proposed method can ensure the stability and reliability of the estimation with high quality in the grey system. As a result, it is certain that the GM(1,1) model with the accumulating method has a good application in the future indeed.