Real-time prediction of meme burst

Abstract

Predicting meme burst is of great relevance to develop security-related detecting and early warning capabilities. In this paper, we propose a feature-based method for real-time meme burst predictions, namely “Semantic, Network, and Time” (SNAT). By considering the potential characteristics of bursty memes, such as the semantics and spatio-temporal characteristics during their propagation, SNAT is capable of capturing meme burst at the very beginning and in real time. Experimental results prove the effectiveness of SNAT in terms of both fixed-time and real-time meme burst prediction tasks.