Analyzing the effect of power supply net capacity on electricity sales based on growth curve

2017 13th International Conference on Natural Computation, Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery (ICNC-FSKD) Pub Date : 2017-07-29 DOI:10.1109/FSKD.2017.8393068

Yuze Chen, Jiakui Zhao, Jian Liu, Yuxi Liu, Bingxin Wang, Ouyang Hong, Hongwang Fang, Yaozong Lu

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Grasping the effect of power supply net capacity on electricity sales has a great significance to analyze the trend of electricity sales accurately. Based on correlation analysis of historical data of the first, second, third industrial and residential electricity sales and power supply net capacity of power company, this paper presents a method of analyzing the effect of power supply net capacity on electricity sales by growth curve. The method eliminates the effect of seasonal factor and random factor of power supply net capacity and electricity sales by X13 seasonal adjustment, calculates the leading time of power supply net capacity ahead of electricity sales by dynamic time warping, calculates load operation ratio of power supply net capacity by growth curve. The method is used for quantitative analysis in studying electricity sales' changes caused by power supply net capacity. The experimental results show that the proposed method can be a good measure of the impact of power supply net capacity on electricity sales, the model can also be used to guide the analysis of the trend of electricity sales and provide effective data support for decision making of power companies.

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基于增长曲线分析供电净容量对售电的影响

掌握供电网容量对售电的影响，对准确分析售电趋势具有重要意义。本文在对一、二、三次工业和居民用电量与电力公司供电网容量历史数据进行相关性分析的基础上，提出了一种利用增长曲线分析供电网容量对电力公司用电量影响的方法。该方法通过X13季节性调整消除了季节因素和随机因素对供电网容量和售电量的影响，通过动态时间规整计算供电网容量超前于售电量的领先时间，通过增长曲线计算供电网容量负荷运行比。将该方法用于定量分析供电网络容量对售电变化的影响。实验结果表明，所提出的方法可以很好地衡量供电网容量对售电的影响，所建立的模型也可用于指导售电趋势分析，为电力公司的决策提供有效的数据支持。

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2017 13th International Conference on Natural Computation, Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery (ICNC-FSKD)

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