Modeling of urban ecological safety evaluation based on fuzzy matter-element theory

Jiulong Zhu
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Abstract

Urban ecological safety evaluation is an important way to coordinate economic development and environmental protection and to promote urban sustainable development. This paper constructed an evaluation indicator system of urban ecological safety. The indicator system was composed of vigor, organization, resilience, maintenance of ecosystem service and human health. Then it discussed evaluation grads and standard values of indicators. Considering the illegibility and uncertainty in ecological safety evaluation, the paper combined fuzzy mathematics and matter-element theory to establish an evaluation model. Finally it developed a case study on Guangzhou city from 1991 to 2007. There is a tendency of gradual improvement in ecological safety of Guangzhou. However, safety conditions during the study period belong to “critically safe” grade, so ecological safety conditions of Guangzhou are unsatisfactory and need to be improved. Fuzzy matter-element theory is scientific, simple, and practical for multi-objective decision-making problems of safety evaluation.
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基于模糊物元理论的城市生态安全评价建模
城市生态安全评价是协调经济发展与环境保护、促进城市可持续发展的重要手段。本文构建了城市生态安全评价指标体系。指标体系由活力、组织、恢复力、生态系统服务维持和人类健康组成。然后讨论了指标的评价梯度和标准值。考虑到生态安全评价的模糊性和不确定性,将模糊数学与物元理论相结合,建立了生态安全评价模型。最后以广州市1991 - 2007年为例进行了实证研究。广州市的生态安全状况有逐步改善的趋势。然而,研究期间的安全状况属于“极度安全”级,因此广州的生态安全状况不理想,需要改善。模糊物元理论对于安全评价的多目标决策问题具有科学、简单、实用的特点。
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