Dynamic Prediction of Casualties after Earthquakes Based on Systematic Review and Empirical Data

Abstract

. Background : To understand the occurrence trend of earthquake casualties and identify key risk factors. Methods : We constructed a dynamic estimation model to analyze and simulate the occurrence of casualties after earthquakes and to predict the influence of earthquake magnitude and rescue team arrival speed on incidence of injuries and deaths. The model was conducted in MATLAB software. Results : In general, half the total casualties are usually certified in the first 23 hours after an earthquake; 80 percent of all casualties of an earthquake are usually certified in the first 77 hours after an incident, and usually 164 hours after an incident 99 percent of the total deaths are certified and the death toll tends to stabilize. If all rescuers arrive in earthquake-stricken areas in the first three days after an earthquake, casualty status can be greatly improved. Conclusions : Our research put forward a dynamic estimation model to simulate casualty occurrence in changing environments. at early stage of the of an inflection point and RGP transitions into a stable growth period(SGP)of casualties with a gradually decreasing growth rate till the rescue work ends.