VSEW: an early warning system for volcanic and seismic events

Abstract

Forecasting of imminent seismic and/or volcanic events can drastically reduce the loss of human life by evacuating the inhabitants residing in the neighboring areas. An integrated system, called Volcano-Seismic Early Warning (VSEW), is proposed, capable of classifying the alarm scenario in three levels (soft, medium and hard) for the forecast of seismic-volcanic phenomena of medium-high intensity. The system is based on threshold levels, calculated statistically, of some seismic and volcanic precursors (historical and recent earthquakes, volcanic tremor, concentration of magmatic gases, soil temperature). In active volcanic areas, the analysis of satellite images can highlight the soil temperature gradients between adjacent crustal areas, which is a critical criterion for identifying deep thermal anomalies linked to the rise of magmatic bodies. After being processed by a central server, the selected geological data are made available to mobile devices (smartphones, tablets, notebooks) to which they are presented in graphs and tables. An acoustic-luminous alarm will warn the user when the threshold values of one or more geophysical parameters have been reached or exceeded: the intensity of the signal emitted will be proportional to the risk of a potential eruption or earthquake. The implementation of this system aims at providing a valid alert instrument in areas characterized by high volcanic and seismic risk.