Probabilistic Modeling for the Uruguayan electrical load: present capacity and current improvements

Abstract

Massive incorporation of wind and solar energy into the Uruguayan electrical system, makes forecasting in general, and in particular that of Electricity Demand, an essential tool for programming the optimal short-term operation. In addition to allowing the scheduling of use of energy resources on a weekly basis, the precision of the hourly power forecasts is a key tool for forecasting the power balance and determining the flexible resources that will be necessary to maintain the system equilibrium in the following hours. This work briefly describes the developed model, details the last improvements made and shows some quality indicators obtained for the last version. Finally, the calibration methodology which was recently improved and is under testing period is also described.