MANAGING THE COVID-19 NIGERIAN ECONOMY: POLICY RETROSPECTION

R. Kyarem, Zubair A. Zulaihatu
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Abstract

Covid-19 pandemic reached Nigeria in February 2020 with its debilitating characteristics of lockdown and social distance. The Nigerian economy responded with all socio-economic indices turning negative between February and August 2020.With deteriorating socio-economic indicators, the Nigerian government reacted with Covid-19 containment policies which yielded positive results in limiting the spread of the pandemic. On the other hand, the other policies aim at stimulating economic revival has yielded little anticipated results. The government embarked of conflicting policies of expansion and contraction simultaneously thus frustrating the attainment of set goals of reviving the economy. A central sub-sector of the economy with potentials for reviving the economy - peasant farming is altogether ignored. Structured on the theoretical framework of new classical school of economic thought, the paper employed retrospective methodology for analysis. The way forward is to embark on short run expansionary policies. All contraction policies like increase taxation should be reversed. Specific short run policies should be directed at the surplus labour and land in the rural peasant agricultural sector using the channels of traditional rulers and community based organizations. The short term policies should be in line with the lifespan of staple crops like rice hence surplus food produced will stifle the galloping inflation and the resources injected in the rural areas will reduce the worsening unemployment. These positive short run outcomes would expunge the economy out of the economic morass occasioned by the Covid-19 pandemic and guarantee sustainable economic growth.
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应对COVID-19尼日利亚经济:政策回顾
2019冠状病毒病大流行于2020年2月抵达尼日利亚,其特点是封锁和社交距离。尼日利亚经济的反应是,2020年2月至8月期间,所有社会经济指标都转为负值。随着社会经济指标不断恶化,尼日利亚政府采取了遏制新冠肺炎疫情的政策,在限制疫情传播方面取得了积极成果。另一方面,旨在刺激经济复苏的其他政策并没有取得预期的效果。政府同时实施了相互矛盾的扩张和收缩政策,从而阻碍了既定的经济复苏目标的实现。经济中具有振兴经济潜力的核心分部门——农民农业,完全被忽视了。本文以新古典经济思想学派的理论框架为框架,采用回溯分析的方法进行分析。未来的出路是实施短期扩张性政策。所有的紧缩政策,比如增税,都应该逆转。具体的短期政策应利用传统统治者和社区组织的渠道,针对农村农民农业部门的剩余劳动力和土地。短期政策应该与大米等主要作物的寿命相一致,因此生产的剩余粮食将遏制飞涨的通货膨胀,向农村地区注入的资源将减少日益恶化的失业率。这些积极的短期成果将使经济摆脱新冠肺炎大流行造成的经济困境,并确保经济可持续增长。
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