Financial Globalization and the International Transmission of Interest Rate Shocks: The Federal Reserve and China

Abstract

This paper evaluates the spillovers from U.S. monetary policy to China's domestic interest rates over 1999-2016, focusing on the impacts of long-term interest rate and exchange rate regimes on the capacity of China to moderate external interest rate shocks. We find that China's central bank owns some extent of autonomy as it has a significant preference to control inflation and stimulate the economy even beyond the potential growth. However, China’s interest rates are significantly impacted by U.S. monetary policy especially after the crisis. The transmission from U.S. interest rates to China at the long-end even exists before the crisis, but only for the positive change of U.S. interest rates. The comparison with New Zealand's experience provides some evidence that central banks are more likely facing a "monetary dilemma" and China's fixed exchange rate regime with capital controls might help to mitigate the spillovers of external monetary shocks in a turmoil period.