The Future of the EU after Brexit, and Covid-19

Abstract

This chapter reflects on the future of the EU after Brexit — as an entity of 27 member states (EU27). In dealing with a member state that had decided to leave, the EU27 proved able to stick together and jointly defend the common interests, including of its smaller member states. However, the EU27 have faced an increasing number of crises which have profoundly challenged their unity and resolve. Indeed, the subsequent crises shattering the EU — including the euro-crisis, the migration crisis, and the rule of law crisis — and climaxing with Covid-19 have exposed deep divisions among the EU27 and brought to the surface competing visions of the project of European integration. Three alternative ideas of what the EU is and ought to be are increasingly taking shape: a first that sees the EU as a polity, which requires solidarity and a communion of efforts towards a shared destiny; a second that sees the EU as a market, designed to enhance wealth through commerce, but with as limited redistribution as possible; and a third which instead sees the EU as a vehicle to entrench state authoritarian rule, based on national identity and sovereignty claims, but with crucial transnational financial support. While these alternative visions often coexist within each state, they have increasingly become hallmarks of states, or blocs thereof, which are openly facing each other in the EU arena.