On Coverage-Based Attack Profiles

Abstract

Automated cyber attacks tend to be schedule and resource limited. The primary progress metric is often "coverage" of pre-determined "known" vulnerabilities that may not have been patched, along with possible zero-day exploits (if such exist). We present and discuss a hypergeometric process model that describes such attack patterns. We used web request signatures from the logs of a production web server to assess the applicability of the model.