An evolving understanding for predicting emergent properties

Abstract

Emergence is a systems concept that refers to the properties that emerge as a result of the interactions between elements of a system. Emergent properties can be desirable or undesirable. Due to the potential for adverse consequences, it is beneficial to understand the undesirable emergent properties and be able to predict them prior to their occurrence. If the undesirable emergent properties are not predicted, it is important to detect them as soon as possible after their occurrence to minimize potential negative consequences. This paper discusses how the ability to predict and detect emergent properties evolves and improves over a system's lifecycle. Factors and system characteristics which may be useful to predict emergent properties are identified and associated to stages and processes in the system's lifecycle.