New Approach for Long Term Electricity Load Forecasting for Uttarakhand State Power Utilities using Artificial Neural Network

Abstract

The reliable and continuous power supply is must for the today’s era where most of works in every human’s life is based on electricity. In Uttarakhand due to increasing requirement of electricity load and various Transmission and Distribution losses and other obstructions, the Power Generation and DISCOMs are working very closer to the energy demand and generation. The generated electricity cannot be stored efficiently, due to this reason so the electrical load is managed by power utilities for a small approach. The Forecasting of electricity is essential for Power Generation, Transmission and Distribution companies. This study is based on Long Term Load Forecasting using Artificial Neural Network. Due to long duration of forecast it is difficult to foreseen off-peak load demand and this study is based on Long Term Electricity Load Forecasting in Uttarakhand State. The data of Population, GDP, Historical Load from 2011 to 2020 is used as input layer in three-layer feed forward neural network for training, validation, and testing. As a new approach the data of renewal energy source (solar power plants, biogas) and State Gas Generation Station, Electric Vehicle and Charging Infrastructure for Electrical Vehicle is used as input data. The forecasting of electricity load in Uttarakhand for long terms is calculated from 2021 to 2030. The Government of Uttarakhand has launched Vision 2030 for Uttarakhand where the main aim is to accelerate economic growth in Uttarakhand by inviting investors and promotion of free waiver policies on long term infrastructure setup.