Simple, Systematic Reserves Estimation for Unconventional Wells

Abstract

Booking reserves for unconventional, multi-frac wells is a critical business process, but to be done effectively, often requires significant time investment and multiple interpretation techniques. Although reserves can be estimated quickly with decline curve analysis (DCA) alone, the subjectivity in DCA makes it challenging for evaluators to estimate reserves with appropriate levels of uncertainty and maintain consistency between evaluators. The objective of this paper is to present a fast, systematic, yet rigorous methodology for estimating 1P, 2P and 3P estimated ultimate recoveries (EURs) for new wells. This methodology utilizes regression to correlate easy to obtain, early life indicators of well performance to 2P EURs, which have been estimated from more detailed interpretations. Multiple methodologies are presented for estimating 1P and 3P EURs.