Statistical Analysis on the Power Energy Adequacy of the PV Generation in South China

Hong-Tao Liu, Bingying Lin, H. Xie, Ligang Zhao, Hongyue Zhen, Xingyi Song
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Abstract

Statistical models to evaluate the electricity supply ability of the PV power is important for the planning of the generation resources and storages in the new power system. In this paper, statistical analysis is carried on the operation data of PV stations in south China from different time scales. The means and variances of the PV Daily Maximum Power Generation Utilization Hours (D-MPUH) in each month, as well as the distributions of the Hourly Electricity Output (HEO) in the year are established. Based on analysis of the statistic relationship, a parameter estimation method for the daily electricity supply curves of PV stations considering the regional correlation with the latitude is proposed and verified by the historical samples of the PV stations.
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华南地区光伏发电电力能量充分性的统计分析
建立评价光伏发电供电能力的统计模型,对于新电力系统的发电资源和储能规划具有重要意义。本文对华南地区不同时间尺度的光伏电站运行数据进行了统计分析。建立了各月光伏日最大发电利用小时数(D-MPUH)的均值和方差,以及全年每小时发电量(HEO)的分布。在分析统计关系的基础上,提出了考虑区域与纬度相关性的光伏电站日供电曲线参数估计方法,并通过光伏电站历史样本进行了验证。
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