Research on the Emergency Control Decision on Water Bloom in Lake and Reservoir Based on Fuzzy Bayes under Comprehensive Restrictions

Abstract

It is of great importance to put forward an optimal decision scheme as to the emergency control of water bloom in lake and reservoir, so as to prevent water bloom in time and protect the water environment effectively. Based on in-depth analysis on the emergency control decision model and control method of the water bloom, a fuzzy Bayes decision model on the basis of the comprehensive restrictions of minimal risks and costs has been put forward specifically. The fuzzy membership function was adopted to perform fuzzy regional control to the prior probability, and introduced the influence of comprehensive conditions of minimal risks and costs to the result of decisions by weight adjustment, and this method has been successfully applied in the water bloom emergency control of lake and reservoir as the preferable decision scheme in Beijing. At the same time, we have developed an auxiliary decision system of water bloom emergency control information in lake and reservoir, providing valid evidence for environmental protection departments to perform water bloom prevention in lake and reservoir.