Understanding the Operation of Motorcycle Taxi Drivers in Nigeria Using Causal Loop Diagram

Abstract

Road safety is a subject of concern the world over and many studies have looked into how to improve safe travel. Motorcycles, including motorcycle taxis, are particularly vulnerable. This paper reports the outcome of a study conducted on motorcycle taxi safety problems using a system dynamics method. Qualitative data was obtained from the field and analysed using qualitative analysis methods. The outcome of the qualitative analysis led to the formulation of a dynamic hypothesis for a system dynamics approach, whose first step was to develop and analyse a causal loop diagram [CLD]. This CLD demonstrates how deterrence, a behavioural pattern that can be produced by the appropriate application of sanctions, is both strengthened and weakened within the system. The paper uses this analysis to provide insights about the behavioural patterns of motorcycle taxi operation in Nigeria. These insights include the possibility of maintaining the system at equilibrium for a desired level of deterrence as well as the possibility of breaking undesirable cycles of bribery and jumping arrest loops. These insights can also be useful in other countries of the world where motorcycle taxis operate.