Space Commercialization and the Rise of Constellations: The Resulting Impact on the Kessler Effect

Abstract

The Kessler Effect was predicated on the notion that the addition of objects into orbit around the Earth could reach a tipping point in which space debris would become so condensed that it would restrict our ability to launch anything into orbit. While we are certainly not there yet, launch windows are an essential step in the mission planning process. The rise of constellations fueled by the recent commercialization of space further complicates this scenario and is a cause for concern among researchers and innovators alike. However, advances in technology, specifically, debris mitigation strategies, may prolong or even minimize the likelihood of the Kessler Effect becoming a reality. To examine this problem, current satellite launches were reviewed against debris mitigation strategies then compared to the total number of tracked debris and overall debris, as identified by the European Space Agency (ESA). Multiple linear regression models were used to illustrate the potential impact of additional satellite launches along with projected mitigation strategies on the total number of tracked debris in LEO and overall debris. The independent variable was the number of satellite launches to LEO less the percentage of these satellites that adhered to debris mitigation strategies as defined by the IADC. The dependent variables were the number of tracked debris in LEO and the number of overall debris. The time period for all data was 2010 through 2021. The results of the data analysis indicate that the addition of satellites in LEO does have a significant impact on tracked and overall debris levels, despite mitigation efforts. While the Kessler Theory has not occurred yet, the predictions made in the seminal study were based on a much smaller pool of debris compared to what exists today. Current debris mitigation strategies must be adhered to for new satellites, while effective debris removal opportunities must continue to be explored for existing orbital debris. Additional research that removes Starlink satellites from the sampled population may provide a more reliable view of the problem.