{"title":"Trend-cycle Estimation Using Fuzzy Transform and Its Application for Identifying Bull and Bear Phases in Markets","authors":"Linh Nguyen, Vilém Novák, Soheyla Mirshahi","doi":"10.1002/isaf.1473","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n <p>This paper is focused on one of the fundamental problems in financial time-series analysis; namely, the identification of the historical bull and bear phases. We start with the proof that the trend-cycle can be well estimated using the technique of a higher degree fuzzy transform. Then, we suggest a mathematical definition of the bull and bear phases and provide a novel technique for their identification. As a consequence, the turning points (i.e. the points where the market changes its phase) are detected. We illustrate our methodology on several examples.</p>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":53473,"journal":{"name":"Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management","volume":"27 3","pages":"111-124"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2020-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1002/isaf.1473","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/isaf.1473","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Abstract
This paper is focused on one of the fundamental problems in financial time-series analysis; namely, the identification of the historical bull and bear phases. We start with the proof that the trend-cycle can be well estimated using the technique of a higher degree fuzzy transform. Then, we suggest a mathematical definition of the bull and bear phases and provide a novel technique for their identification. As a consequence, the turning points (i.e. the points where the market changes its phase) are detected. We illustrate our methodology on several examples.
期刊介绍：
Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management is a quarterly international journal which publishes original, high quality material dealing with all aspects of intelligent systems as they relate to the fields of accounting, economics, finance, marketing and management. In addition, the journal also is concerned with related emerging technologies, including big data, business intelligence, social media and other technologies. It encourages the development of novel technologies, and the embedding of new and existing technologies into applications of real, practical value. Therefore, implementation issues are of as much concern as development issues. The journal is designed to appeal to academics in the intelligent systems, emerging technologies and business fields, as well as to advanced practitioners who wish to improve the effectiveness, efficiency, or economy of their working practices. A special feature of the journal is the use of two groups of reviewers, those who specialize in intelligent systems work, and also those who specialize in applications areas. Reviewers are asked to address issues of originality and actual or potential impact on research, teaching, or practice in the accounting, finance, or management fields. Authors working on conceptual developments or on laboratory-based explorations of data sets therefore need to address the issue of potential impact at some level in submissions to the journal.
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