Modeling the number of COVID-19 cases in St. Petersburg in the period 2020–2022

Abstract

Intoduction. The construction of mathematical models of changes in the total and daily amounts of the coronavirus of the population of St. Petersburg in various segments and the period from 2020 to 2022. The need for research is dictated by the presence of a dysfunctional situation in the city, as well as the need to develop a methodological apparatus for short-term operational assessment of changes and forecasting of key indicators of the spread of coronavirus. Purpose. To assess the change in the total and daily indicators of coronavirus disease in the population of St. Petersburg in the periods May-August 2020 and 2021 and to carry out a short-term forecast. Methods. The solution of the problem was carried out by modeling and performing short-term prediction of the folding situation of coronavirus in St. Petersburg by the total (integral) and daily (differential) number of diseases in the region. Modelling is based on statistics that are generated through monitoring by coordinating councils to combat the spread of COVID-19 in regions and in the country. Results. An approach and mathematical apparatus for modeling and forecasting the dynamics of regional key indicators of the spread of the pandemic in the regions of Russia are proposed. Practical relevance. The proposed solution to the problem will enable the administration and health authorities to receive scientific information for evaluating and adjusting their work to create normal economic and social living conditions for residents of Russian regions.